Professor Andy Brown, Dr Chau Chu, Professor Gary Dymski, Dr Giselle Huaccha and Dr Richard Whittle
Executive Summary
An increasing concern of national and regional policymaking in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is provision of timely data on real-time economic performance and underlying activities throughout different parts of the nation and regions to give a complete signal about a fair, just, and long-lasting recovery plan for all. This briefing note outlines the economic recovery plan of the West Yorkshire region as a direct response to a request by West Yorkshire Combined Authority. The economic recovery plan has naturally evolved from a necessary immediate response to the COVID-19 pandemic to a broader re-imaging of developing a sustainable, fair and inclusive economy. This evolution brings with it a necessity to reconceptualise the aims and approaches of economic forecasting in West Yorkshire and the measurement of success.
Through a series of recommendations, this document presents a proposal to create a dynamic systems-based model over many social and environmental aspects to fully understand the West Yorkshire’s inclusive economy and to provide the most updates of the region’s economic
nowcasts and forecasts. This proposal is conducive to West Yorkshire policy professionals, empowering them to adjust the nation’s economic recovery plan to the region’s emergent aspects and policy interactions with an ultimate goal of ensuring fair, just opportunities for all, especially disconnected parts and underrepresented social communities of the economy.
The three areas of focus emerge to support a sustainable, fair and resilient recovery of West Yorkshire:
First, the regional economy points to the role of timely data on real-time economic performance, economic nowcasts and forecasts to introduce profound economic changes, direct revaluations, and impact economic policy decisions. Data releases by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and internal nowcasting to generate the regional annual output are due with a significant delay and far too late to make real-time decisions. Thus, in this analysis, we provide nowcasts, using most timely Regional Shor Term Indicators (RSTI) releases with insights on the region’s economy.
Second, the regional economy is better understood as a dynamic system with inclusive and sustainable economic aims. There necessitates available resources and comprehensive assessment of social and environmental values—such as transport and digital connectivity, housing affordability, skills of local workforce, business performance, transition to net-zero emissions—at local geographic areas to understand how the region’s social economic system work and to indicate its disconnected parts that should be paid more attention to achieve the fairness and inclusiveness strategy.
Third, the incorporation of foundational measures relating to environmental and socioeconomic values into the region’s economic output will further allow for a forensic view of the components of the West Yorkshire economy as well as its top-level statistics, resulting in a dynamic and responsive recovery policy for all. Considering wider environment and social impacts as well as understanding regional advantages in local workforce, infrastructure and innovative ecosystems help set immediate priorities for investments and policy interventions today and secure a more resilient economy in the future.
